Draft Projection Methodology Guideline (PMG) to support the implementation of the Provincial Planning Statement, 2024 (PPS, 2024)

Context

As Canada continues to be a leader in population growth among the G7 nations, the bulk of this growth is occurring in Ontario. It is essential that Ontario municipalities’ growth planning adequately anticipates these pressures, both in the near term and well into the future. Adequate growth planning ensures the land and infrastructure needs of current and future Ontarians are in place and reflect the diverse needs of families and businesses, as well as overall balance in the housing market.

As a major step towards achieving the ambitious planning required to adequately and affordably house a growing population and workforce, the Province released the Provincial Planning Statement (PPS, 2024). The PPS, 2024 is a policy statement issued under the authority of section 3 of the Planning Act, which applies to all decisions in respect of the exercise of any authority that affects a planning matter made on or after October 20, 2024.

Population and employment forecasts are important for planning authorities to plan their communities. As required under the PPS, 2024, planning authorities must base population and employment forecasts on the Ontario Population Projections published by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and may modify, as appropriate. Sufficient land must be made available to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of land uses to meet projected needs for a time horizon of at least 20 years, but not more than 30 years, informed by provincial guidance. Notwithstanding the planning horizon, planning authorities may consider planning for infrastructure, public service facilities, strategic growth areas and employment areas beyond this time horizon.

For more information about the policy requirements in the PPS, 2024, please refer to the introduction in the further revised draft Projection Methodology Guideline (PMG) in the supporting materials section of this ERO posting.

The proposed guidance is meant to support policy implementation but cannot add to or detract from the policies of PPS, 2024. In addition, the proposed guidance is not intended to address the location of new settlement areas, the location of expansions to settlement areas, the location of employment areas, or the suitability of whether a particular area of land should be included or removed from an employment area. These matters are to be addressed through other relevant policies.

Before the PPS, 2024 came into effect, a detailed land needs assessment methodology applied in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (in accordance with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2019). The 1995 PMG has been available to be used elsewhere in Ontario to assist in determining population and employment forecasts and assessing housing and land needs requirements. An update to the PMG is needed to support the implementation of the PPS, 2024, reflect recent provincial government priorities, and incorporate new information, data sources and best practices.

From August 12, 2025, to October 11, 2025, the Ministry undertook a 60-day public consultation (ERO #025-0844) to support the review and update of the 1995 PMG to assist planning authorities with forecasting growth and determining land needs. ERO #025-0844 provides an overview of the feedback received through the 2025 consultation.

The feedback and recommendations received from Indigenous communities, municipalities, the public and other stakeholders through the 2025 consultation informed the development of the further revised draft PMG. The Ministry is now seeking input on the further revised draft PMG.

Proposal

The government is seeking public feedback on proposed legislative changes under the proposed Building Homes and Improving Transportation Infrastructure Act, 2026 and related regulatory changes to further support housing, economic, and infrastructure development, and advance key transportation and transit priorities. While the draft Projection Methodology Guideline (PMG), 2026 would not be a proposed legislative change or related regulatory change, it supports the broader government objectives under the Act.

The purpose of the PMG is to assist municipalities and other planning authorities with developing population and employment forecasts, identifying land needs requirements to plan their communities, and implement provincial policies. If finalized, this proposed guidance would replace the existing 1995 PMG.

The proposed guidance outlines methodologies and appropriate data sources for municipalities to use to prepare these forecasts and land needs assessments. The proposed guidance is organized into four main sections: 

1. Establishing Municipal Population Projections 

The purpose of this section of the proposed guidance is to identify and allocate the Ministry of Finance population projections from the Census Division (CD) to the municipality level (i.e., the Census Subdivision) to the planning horizon. The outcome would be used as an input in developing population and employment forecasts.

2. Developing Housing Needs Forecasts

The purpose of this section is to determine the amount of housing needed to the horizon year, accounting for intensification within built-up areas in existing settlement areas and the need for additional settlement area land to accommodate growth. The outcome would be used as an input for assessing land needs. 

3. Developing Employment Forecasts

The purpose of this section is to identify the amount and type of employment growth that should be accommodated over the planning horizon, as well as the distribution of the employment growth by type. The outcome would be used as an input for assessing land needs.

4. Land Needs Assessment 

The purpose of this section is to guide municipalities in identifying the amount of land required to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of land uses to meet a municipality’s projected needs over a 20 to 30-year planning horizon. The outcome of this section is that municipalities would be provided with the amount of developable land needed to support PPS, 2024 implementation.

The Province is now seeking input on a further revised draft PMG that includes key changes responsive to the ERO #025-0844 consultation. The key changes are:

• Providing increased clarity on when to consider undertaking population and employment forecast updates, which Ontario Population Projection data to use and how to set the planning horizon.
• Providing more details on assessing housing needs by considering housing tenure, housing type and propensities for households to occupy certain types of housing, and making adjustments such as to reflect market demand, housing affordability and suppressed household formation.
• Providing clarity on estimating feasible intensification rates when determining the amount and type of housing units that can be accommodated through intensification in the built-up area.
• Streamlining the land needs assessment methods for greater consistency among most municipalities, while continuing to allow a simplified method that is less data-intensive with clearer recommendations on which municipalities may use it.

The government is prioritizing enabling the construction of new homes and infrastructure, including by streamlining development processes and reducing costs in close partnership with municipalities. To ensure that this draft guidance helps to achieve the government priorities, the Ministry is interested in feedback regarding potential major implementation challenges associated with the guidance. Following the consideration of feedback, the intention is to release a final PMG as quickly as possible to support the construction of new homes and increase employment.

The following question may assist in your review of the guidance: 

1. What do you think about the key changes that have been made to the further revised draft PMG in response to the feedback received through ERO#025-0844?