The Cost of Climate Change…

The Cost of Climate Change Starts with Land Use Decisions

Extreme climate events—including heat waves, intense rainfall, flooding and damaging windstorms—are becoming more frequent and more severe. While engineers and planners use the best available science to model future stormwater management needs, no one can accurately predict the magnitude or frequency of these events over the next 25 to 50 years.

For this reason, land use decisions made today must prioritize resilience. Once mature urban greenspace is replaced with roads, rooftops and hard surfaces, the environmental services those lands provide—including stormwater absorption, cooling, carbon storage and habitat—cannot easily be restored.

When development proceeds on lands with known flooding concerns, the long-term financial risks extend well beyond the initial construction. As climate pressures increase, the costs of maintaining infrastructure, managing flooding, repairing roads and municipal services, and adapting neighbourhoods will ultimately be borne by homeowners and taxpayers.

The proposed redevelopment of Millcroft Greens raises these important long-term questions. Burlington's Official Plan recognizes the value of protecting urban greenspace as part of building a resilient city. Yet the use of the Ontario Land Tribunal to approve Phase 1, followed by the pursuit of a Minister's Zoning Order (MZO) to accelerate Phase 2 despite the City's opposition, undermines the role of municipal planning and local decision-making.

Municipalities are responsible for managing the long-term impacts of development, yet provincial planning tools can override locally developed Official Plans that were created through extensive public consultation and technical review. This disconnect places municipalities in the difficult position of bearing future infrastructure and climate adaptation costs while having diminished authority over the land use decisions that create those risks.

Climate resilience begins with thoughtful land use planning. Protecting significant urban greenspace is not simply an environmental objective—it is a long-term investment in reducing flood risk, limiting urban heat, protecting public infrastructure and reducing future costs for residents and municipalities. Planning decisions made today should reflect not only current housing needs but also the realities of a changing climate and the responsibility we have to future generations.